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p. 7611. Probability: the strange case of the missing reference classlocked

  • Graham Priest

Abstract

A probability is a number assigned to a sentence, measuring how likely it is that the sentence might turn out to be true. It is measured on a scale of 0 to 10. ‘Probability: the strange case of the missing reference class’ examines probability in terms of the question of inductive validity: the validity of those inferences where the premisses give some ground for the conclusion; yet where, even if the premisses are true, the conclusion could still be false. An inference is inductively valid if the conditional probability of the conclusion given the (conjunction of the) premiss or premisses is greater than that of its negation given the premisses.

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