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p. 556. The demographic transition—centrepiece of demographylocked

  • Sarah Harper


The demographic transition is regarded as a centrepiece of demography. It is the series of changes that occur as countries evolve from a stable state of high mortality and high fertility to one of low mortality and low fertility, but its timing and drivers are strongly debated. ‘The demographic transition—centrepiece of demography’ explains that demographic transition theory can be divided into three broad components: first, the changes over time in mortality and fertility, based on clear data and therefore generally uncontested; second, and the most controversial, the construction of causal models to explain the timing, pace, and drivers of these changes; and third, the attempt to predict future changes especially for countries of the South.

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