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4. Probability

4. Probability  

David J. Hand

in Statistics: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Oct 2008
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191777097
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199233564.003.0004
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199233564
‘Probability’ examines how statistics deals with uncertainty. In probability calculus events are assigned a number between zero and one based on the degree of belief about their likelihood. ... More
7. Co-evolution and the formation of niches

7. Co-evolution and the formation of niches  

John H. Holland

in Complexity: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Jul 2014
Published Online: 
Jul 2014
eISBN: 
9780191780004
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199662548.003.0007
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199662548
What is a niche? ‘Co-evolution and the formation of niches’ explains that the term ‘niche’ is widely used to describe an important part of the hierarchical organization of complex adaptive ... More
4. Semantic Information

4. Semantic Information  

Luciano Floridi

in Information: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Feb 2010
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191777349
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199551378.003.0005
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199551378
‘Semantic information’ gives a detailed description of several ways of describing semantic information, and outlines problems associated with these methodologies. Unlike the Mathematical ... More
7. Economic Information

7. Economic Information  

Luciano Floridi

in Information: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Feb 2010
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191777349
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199551378.003.0008
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199551378
‘Economic information’ explores the value of information in society. Information is different from other commodities — it can be consumed limitless times, it can be shared easily, and ... More
2. The workings of probability

2. The workings of probability  

John Haigh

in Probability: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Apr 2012
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191777943
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199588480.003.0002
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199588480
‘The workings of probability’ defines a number of axioms which can be applied when calculating probability. The Addition Law states that when two events are mutually exclusive, the ... More
3. Racing and roulette

3. Racing and roulette  

Michael Allingham

in Choice Theory: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Aug 2002
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191775710
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780192803030.003.0003
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780192803030
‘Racing and roulette’ explains that choice under uncertainty involves choosing from gambles, both when probabilities are given and when they are not. The terms probability gamble, ... More
10. Applied chaos: can we see through our models?

10. Applied chaos: can we see through our models?  

Leonard A. Smith

in Chaos: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Feb 2007
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191776410
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780192853783.003.0010
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780192853783
‘Applied chaos: can we see through our models?’ investigates the application of chaotic models. Traditional statistics has exploited data-based models, such as the persistence, advective, ... More
9. Predictability: does chaos constrain our forecasts?

9. Predictability: does chaos constrain our forecasts?  

Leonard A. Smith

in Chaos: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Feb 2007
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191776410
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780192853783.003.0009
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780192853783
‘Probability: does chaos constrain our forecast?’ explores the accuracy of forecasting. Prediction allows us to examine the link between our models and the real world. However, forecasts ... More
1. What is thought?

1. What is thought?  

Tim Bayne

in Thought: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Jan 2013
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191778148
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199601721.003.0001
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199601721
We think all the time. A life devoid of thought would not be recognizably human. It is one thing to think and another to understand thinking. ‘What is thought?’ considers this question by ... More
6. Games people play

6. Games people play  

John Haigh

in Probability: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Apr 2012
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191777943
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199588480.003.0006
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199588480
‘Games people play’ looks at how probability can be appreciated and manipulated in different games. In a lottery there is no way of increasing the probability of your numbers coming up. ... More
9. Curiosities and dilemmas

9. Curiosities and dilemmas  

John Haigh

in Probability: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Apr 2012
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191777943
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199588480.003.0009
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199588480
‘Curiosities and dilemmas’ looks at some unusual probabilistic phenomena, before applying probability theory to modern day issues. It is accepted that a game which favours the house cannot ... More
5. Reasoning

5. Reasoning  

Jonathan St B. T. Evans

in Thinking and Reasoning: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Sep 2017
Published Online: 
Sep 2017
eISBN: 
9780191829321
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780198787259.003.0005
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780198787259
‘Reasoning’ considers deductive reasoning, where we can draw conclusions from assumptions that necessarily follow, and statistical inference, in which we infer probabilities from other ... More
6. Are we rational?

6. Are we rational?  

Jonathan St B. T. Evans

in Thinking and Reasoning: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Sep 2017
Published Online: 
Sep 2017
eISBN: 
9780191829321
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780198787259.003.0006
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780198787259
Human thinking and reasoning can be compared with a ‘normative’ standard—a formal theory of right and wrong answers. The normative theories mostly applied are decision theory, probability ... More
1. Models

1. Models  

Timothy Gowers

in Mathematics: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Aug 2002
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191776397
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780192853615.003.0001
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780192853615
‘Models’ introduces the concept and purposes of mathematical models. From working out the best trajectory for throwing a stone, rolling a pair of dice, and predicting population growth and ... More
4. Quick thinking

4. Quick thinking  

Michelle Baddeley

in Behavioural Economics: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
Jan 2017
Published Online: 
Jan 2017
eISBN: 
9780191816475
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780198754992.003.0004
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780198754992
Deciding quickly is difficult when we face information and choice overload so in much of our everyday decision-making we use quick rules. ‘Quick thinking’ explores some of these ... More
11. Probability: the strange case of the missing reference class

11. Probability: the strange case of the missing reference class  

Graham Priest

in Logic: A Very Short Introduction (2nd edn)

Print Publication Year: 
Oct 2017
Published Online: 
Oct 2017
eISBN: 
9780191848513
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780198811701.003.0011
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780198811701
A probability is a number assigned to a sentence, measuring how likely it is that the sentence might turn out to be true. It is measured on a scale of 0 to 10. ‘Probability: the strange ... More
12. Inverse probability: you can’t be indifferent about it!

12. Inverse probability: you can’t be indifferent about it!  

Graham Priest

in Logic: A Very Short Introduction (2nd edn)

Print Publication Year: 
Oct 2017
Published Online: 
Oct 2017
eISBN: 
9780191848513
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780198811701.003.0012
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780198811701
People often confuse probabilities with their inverses. Many inductive arguments require us to reason about inverse probabilities. ‘Inverse probability: you can’t be indifferent about it!’ ... More
13. Decision theory: great expectations

13. Decision theory: great expectations  

Graham Priest

in Logic: A Very Short Introduction (2nd edn)

Print Publication Year: 
Oct 2017
Published Online: 
Oct 2017
eISBN: 
9780191848513
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780198811701.003.0013
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780198811701
Pascal’s Wager is about choosing whether to believe in God or not. The argument concludes that the only logical course of action is to believe in God (if you don’t and God does exist then ... More
5. Risk perception

5. Risk perception  

Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany

in Risk: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
May 2011
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191777714
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199576203.003.0006
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199576203
‘Risk perception’ examines how people understand risk, and how this understanding influences decision-making. Effectively making a risk decision requires an individual to have an ... More
7. Risk, culture, and society

7. Risk, culture, and society  

Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany

in Risk: A Very Short Introduction

Print Publication Year: 
May 2011
Published Online: 
Sep 2013
eISBN: 
9780191777714
DOI: 
10.1093/actrade/9780199576203.003.0008
Item type: 
chapter
ISBN: 
9780199576203
‘Risk, culture and society’ frames risk management within society as a whole. The modern study of risk began with assessing probability of defined events, and developed into a science with ... More

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